Labour remain the clear 8/15 favourites to win a majority at the next General Election after winning one seat in Thursday’s by-election, but their odds have drifted slightly from 1/2 before the vote after failing to make it three defeats for the Tories as Uxbridge and South Ruislip remained Conservative.
It means the Tory party overcame outsider odds of 15/2 to retain Boris Johnson’s former seat, where Labour were the clear 1/8 favourite to win.
The odds for the next General Election have slightly swung the Conservative’s way, with ‘no overal majority’ shortening to 5/2 from 3/1.
The Uxbridge result was a boost for Rishi Sunak, who was 15/2 to be replaced as the party’s leader this year but these odds have drifted to 9/1 after his party limited defeats to two instead of three.
Next general election overall majority
Labour majority – 8/15 (was 1/2)
No overall majority – 5/2 (was 3/1)
Conservative majority – 9/1
Year Rishi Sunak replaced as Conservative leader
2023 – 9/1 (15/2)
2024 – 5/4
2025 or later – 11/10
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said, “All the pre by-elections roads were leading to a very bruising night for the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak, and while the party lost in Selby and Ainsty and in Somerton and Frome, holding Uxbridge and South Ruislip when the odds suggested they were huge 15/2 outsiders to do so has failed to see Labour improve their chances of a majority at the next General Election, according to the odds.
“Labour remain the clear favourites at 8/15, but these odds have slightly drifted from 1/2 before the by-election, meanwhile the chances of no overal majority has increased with the odds shortening to 5/2 from 3/1 after the Conservative’s shock victory in Uxbridge.
“The result was good news for Rishi Sunak, who may have eased any calls for him to go anytime soon, according to the odds, as 2023 being the year he walks has drifted to 9/1 from 15/2, likely buying the leader enough time to take the party into the next General Election.”
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