The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released the latest Consumer Price Inflation Index, revealing a 4.9% inflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages.
This marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase, and the highest level since last February, raising alarms across the hospitality sector.
Adding to industry concern, broadcaster and farmer, Jeremy Clarkson, has warned that this year’s harvest will be ‘catastrophic’, intensifying fears that rising costs will hit restaurants, cafes and hotels across the UK.
In response, experts from, restaurant management system, Access Hospitality, are urging businesses to act now to address inflationary pressures, revealing that breakfast, brunch and afternoon tea menus are likely to be hit the hardest.
Hospitality sector impacted most by latest inflation rate of almost 5%
Based on the July 2025 4.9% food and drink inflation hike, these breakfast favourites could see noticeable price increases.
Hotels, cafes and pubs are likely to see margins squeezed on this iconic breakfast dish. With meat costs on the rise, key elements of a traditional full English breakfast, including sausages, bacon and black pudding, are all under pressure. With juice, tea or coffee usually accompanying the dish, this also hikes up the price.
Based on the top 10 rated breakfast spots in London that offer full English breakfasts, the average cost is £11.84. However, with the 4.9% inflation rate, this could increase by 59p to £12.43 in 2026. That means for breakfast-loving Brits, just one English breakfast a week would cost an extra £30.68 over one year.
Sweeter breakfast options could also face one of the steepest cost hikes, as condiments such as honey, syrups and jam are being impacted by inflation. This could see toast and jam, yoghurt and honey and syrup-covered pancakes increasing in cost.
Pressure is increasing for all things sweet, as sugar and chocolate-related treats are impacted. The British classic of afternoon tea could soon cost more as scones with jam, cakes, and pastries contain inflationary ingredients.
Hotels and cafes may need to re-examine the selection of items on the afternoon tea menu to keep costs reasonable.
With orange juice being one of the biggest rises, juice bars, brunch spots, and hotel buffets could see higher costs. With juices being part of smoothies and a popular item on breakfast menus, operators might have to look for alternatives.
With tea, coffee and cocoa inflation biting, cafes and coffee shops face challenges across their drink menus. Matcha prices are also being driven up due to surging demand and smaller tea crops from tariffs and heatwaves*.
Expert reveals how hospitality operators can protect profit margins
Experts from Access Hospitality share: “With many items hit by inflation forming the backbone of breakfast, this means brunch spots, cafes, coffee shops, hotels, and afternoon tea venues could be the hardest hit.
Operators need to get ahead of the curve by making clever substitutions, rethinking supply chains and communicating openly with customers. This will allow businesses to protect both profitability and customer experience.”
Swapping to alternatives such as vegetarian sausages and bacon, in addition to oats rather than sugary-based breakfasts, can help protect profits. With many of the inflationary items being sugar-based, food operators can benefit from swapping to and emphasising the messaging of health-focused ingredients.
For example, with sugar, honey and syrups surging in price, swapping for alternatives such as sweeteners and agave could help.
This is a great time to analyse which specific menu items are the best-selling to prioritise keeping them on the menu, and which dishes could be added to the menu that have items with lower inflation rates. For example, as meat, jam, honey, syrup and chocolate all saw an upward effect, it’s important to recognise which menu items including these ingredients are customer favourites, and which aren’t.
Trust is a key part of building a strong reputation with customers, in addition to ensuring loyalty and repeat business. Be transparent. If any favourite dishes have increased in price, explain why to diners and ensure you highlight quality as a key driver.
Instead of relying on imported fruits and juices, turn towards seasonal British fruit to incorporate into smoothies and recipes. Swapping high-cost ingredients for seasonal alternatives will take the cost pressure off, without losing out on quality.
Building a stronger relationship with suppliers or exploring alternative suppliers who are cheaper can help to offset pricing changes. Where you can, bulk buying is great for the ingredients you know will be used and not wasted.
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