What are your thoughts?
There will be a second referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. This belief is no longer a desperate scrap of hope held onto by an over-optimistic advocate of this country’s continued EU membership. It is a considered opinion, based on the confusion and chaos that the Brexit negotiation process is visiting on us all, mentally and financially.
The honest truth is I, like most other people, don’t know what’s going on with the negotiations. But, given the claims and counter-claims coming out of the talks, not to mention the bickering amongst the various factions on our side, the odds that things are moving towards a good outcome for the UK don’t appear good.
Speaking of odds, the bookies, often a reliable early warning system for such things, are now hedging against a second referendum happening before January 1, 2020, with Ladbrokes and Coral cutting odds to 4/1. It’s interesting that while risk averse politicians of both major parties are still parroting the mantra ‘the people have spoken and Brexit must happen’, the betting trends are apparently suggesting an alternative outcome is rather likely.
The simple truth is that with consumer debt rising, property inflation slowing (or even turning negative), bars and restaurants outside of major tourist areas starting to struggle, economic growth is under threat. Just the other day the the International Monetary Fund, while upgrading the outlooks of ‘all advanced nations’ except the UK, said that we are starting to see the negative effects of Brexit that many had predicted.
So, as the confused soap opera of the Brexit negotiations continues, there will come a time, and soon, when the sentiment that the bookmakers have already clocked lands in Whitehall, and the second referendum will be set. For simplicity’s sake the bookies have gone for January 1, 2020, for their base date, but I’m predicting a second referendum some time before we automatically ‘fall off the cliff’ to non-membership on March 29, 2019.
After that, we ask the Europeans nicely to come back into the club, they have a meeting, Article 50 is forgotten, and we all live happily ever after. Except Nigel Farage.
It’s called a win-win.