Home Business NewsUK labour market: Investors left with a dog’s dinner’s second derivative

UK labour market: Investors left with a dog’s dinner’s second derivative

17th Jul 25 11:06 am

The employment rate came in at 75.2% in the three months to May, versus 75.1% in April and unemployment came in at 4.7%, versus 4.6% in April and market expectations of 4.6%.

Economic Inactivity in the three months to May came in at 21.0%, versus 21.3% the three months to April.

Annual total earnings growth came in at 5.0%, versus 5.4% in the previous three month period and market expectations of 5.0%.

Nicholas Hyett, Investment Manager at Wealth Club said, โ€œBank of England rate setters were trying to give markets some clarity on the direction of interest rates when itย  said it would be focussed on employment data when considering rate cuts. Unfortunately the picture with employment data itself remains confused.

“Not only are the top line numbers moving in strange and unpredictable ways – with both employment and unemployment rising at the same time – but the underlying data is also incredibly uncertain. The “more reliable” PAYE data has seen around 80,000 people added back to the employment rate for April, and the ONS have already warned the May data could be subject to a “larger than average revision.

“The resulting dog’s dinner of a data set could easily wrongfoot economic policymakers, which leave markets making guesses about a dog’s dinner’s second derivative.

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