Home Business News Tory leadership odds: No late support for Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss 96% likely to win

Tory leadership odds: No late support for Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss 96% likely to win

by LLB political Reporter
2nd Sep 22 12:39 pm

Friday’s odds on Smarkets make Liz Truss a 96% favourite to be announced as the new Prime Minister next week and move into Downing Street on Tuesday.

Rishi Sunak’s price continues to flatline at 4%, with no signs of any late betting support for the former leadership favourite.

Smarkets’ vote-share odds forecast a final result of 64% – 36% in Truss’ favour.

There has been a notable shake-up in the odds for the next Home Secretary, with Tom Tugendhat emerging as the odds-on favourite at 56% to replace Priti Patel. Meanwhile, Kwasi Kwarteng is now up to an 89% chance of being appointed as the next Chancellor.

Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Politics said, “The betting markets are in very little doubt that Liz Truss will be taking over at 10 Downing Street next week. A Rishi Sunak win would represent one of the biggest UK political betting shocks of all time and it would be unprecedented for a candidate given a 4% chance at the end of a campaign to snatch victory.

“The big betting move of the last 24 hours has been for a surprise appointment at the Home Office, with Tom Tugendhat emerging as the frontrunner. Suella Braverman had been the long-time favourite and Tugendhat’s CV would seem much better suited for the Foreign Office, however this morning’s odds on Smarkets now give him a 56% chance of replacing Priti Patel.

“Kwasi Kwarteng remains the hot favourite (89%) to take over as Chancellor with James Cleverly (67%) heading the field in our Next Foreign Secretary market.”

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