Labour has maintained its 16 point lead over the Conservatives in the last fortnight, Opinium’s latest poll shows.
Labour has 41% (n/c) of the vote while the Conservatives are on 25% (n/c).
The Liberal Democrats are on 10% (n/c), Reform UK are on 11% (n/c), the Greens on 8% (+1) and SNP remain on 3% (n/c).
Rishi Sunak has suffered a small dip in approval rating in the last two weeks, dropping 2 points to -36 net (22% approve, 58% disapprove), with Ed Davey improving 2 points to -8 net (14% approve, 22% disapprove). Keir Starmer’s rating remains at -10 net (31% approve, 40% disapprove) (nets are rounded).
Hester race row
As the Frank Hester race row continues and shines a spotlight on party donations, Opinium’s poll reveals half of the UK public (50%) think the Conservatives should have condemned his remarks and returned his donation. A quarter (25%) think they should have condemned the remarks but kept the donation, and just 8% think they should have said nothing and kept the donation.
When looking at ways of raising money, large donations are seen as the least acceptable method, with the public preferring that parties focus their efforts on membership subscriptions and fundraising events. Just over a fifth (22%) think very large donations such as those of more than £1 million are acceptable, with 45% thinking they are not. The majority feel monthly / annual subscriptions from party members are acceptable (64%), with a similar number thinking the same of fundraising events such as dinners, auctions or raffles where supporters can purchase tickets (62%).
Election date speculation
As speculation around the date of the General Election ramped up this week, Opinium’s poll finds a quarter (26%) would like the election in May, although only 7% think that’s when it will be. Most commonly the public think it will be in October (21%) or November (15%). The public feels more certain that Labour will win this election, with 61% predicting this, while only 17% foresee a Conservative victory.
Meanwhile, more than two in five (45%) think Rishi Sunak should resign as Tory leader with someone else becoming leader instead, while 31% think he should remain as leader. A fifth (22%) of current Conservative voters believe he should resign, while 64% would like him to remain as leader. In comparison, 33% think Keir Starmer should resign as Labour leader, and 40% think he should remain in position.
The top of the public’s list to replace Sunak if he resigned is Penny Mordaunt (18%), followed by Suella Braverman (6%) and James Cleverley (6%). However, 45% do not know who should replace him if the situation arose.
James Crouch, head of public affairs and policy at Opinium said, “It’s another week where our polling has very little good news for the Conservatives, with the party continuing to receive support from only a quarter of voters and the Prime Minister’s approval rating continuing to slip ever lower.
“The only respite for Rishi Sunak will be that there is no alternative leader that we could find who has a good chance of beating Keir Starmer considering the current negative perceptions of the Conservative Party as a whole.”
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