The majority of the British public believe conflict is on the horizon, with over half (55%) thinking it’s likely the UK will need to participate in a major military conflict in the next five years.
Yet Opinium’s latest polling also finds that a third (33%) don’t think the UK’s current armed forces can participate in military intervention to defend the UK, raising a question mark over security.
Consequently, a majority (60%) of people believe the UK should increase defence spending, compared to only 16% who believe spending should not increase.
Cutting spending elsewhere is the favoured way of funding this increase (40%), compared to 20% who think it should be done through tax rises.
Additionally, a third (36%) think ESG policies should not create barriers to investment in defence, compared to 14% who think ESG should exclude funding defence companies due to ethical concerns. Uncertainty is high however, as 40% said they were unsure.
Intervention in Ukraine
The public’s apprehension may be fuelled in part by the conflict in Ukraine, now entering its third year. In light of concerns, there is notable support for UK military intervention if this is alongside other major powers. Half (48%) favour intervention alongside major European powers, while backing for a broader NATO or Western-led coalition is slightly lower, at 42%.
Russian aggression toward Ukraine and NATO is considered the predominant reason (65%) for the conflict, with only 1 in 8 (13%) believing NATO and Western expansionism is instead the main cause of the conflict. However, there is an age divide, with 82% of those aged 65+ taking this view, dropping considerably to 47% of 18–34-year-olds. Around a quarter (24%) of 18-34 year olds think that NATO and Western expansionism is to blame, and over a quarter (28%) don’t know what the biggest reason for the conflict is.
In reaching a peace settlement most people believe retaining as much territory and freedom for Ukraine is most important (48%), compared to (32%) who think peace with the least loss of life should instead be prioritised.
Starmer’s scores stay steady
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating remains steady, with a net disapproval of -33%. Kemi Badenoch has dropped 5 points to -20%, while Ed Davey and Nigel Farage’s scores have dropped 2 points.
However, despite a lower approval rating, the public still feels Keir Starmer is best placed to be prime minister (25%) compared to Kemi Badenoch (15%). However, almost half (45%) say ‘none of these’, which can be broken down into 28% of 2024 Labour voters, 40% of 2024 Tory voters and 76% of 2024 Reform voters.
Priya Minhas, Associate Director in Opinium’s Social and Political team, said, “It has been a tumultuous few weeks with Trump’s bolshy approach to global politics, which has led to widespread disapproval from the British public of his administration’s response to the war in Ukraine.
“In a time of great uncertainty, the British public seems relatively certain on one thing – that the UK will engage in a major conflict in the next 5 years. This is fuelled by a high rate of hostility toward Russia and most supporting military intervention to protect Ukraine if other major European powers were to join in.
“While the British public support the need for the UK to increase their defence spending, they want that to be funded through spending cuts and not through increasing their taxes. Whether Rachel Reeves can balance this demand while also driving economic growth in an already challenging economic climate remains to be seen.”
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