The cryptocurrency market has witnessed significant volatility recently, with the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fluctuating within a range of $3.15-3.20 trillion.
While this figure reflects relative stability, the recent market crash can be attributed to several factors, including concerns over trade wars, which have clearly affected Bitcoinโs movement.
Although stock and currency markets have started to recover from this blow, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, have not seen the same rebound, reflecting the prevailing sense of anxiety among traders and investors in this market.
I believe that data related to the “fear and greed” index for cryptocurrencies indicates that the market is suffering from extreme fear.
Yesterday, the index dropped to 43, its lowest level in four months, reflecting an overwhelming sense of worry among investors.
These numbers remind us of previous periods last year, such as March and September, when the market was experiencing downturns. By studying the sentiment index, it appears to me that the market is facing ongoing fluctuations, with confidence indicators significantly declining since their peak in December.
Regarding Bitcoin, it is currently trading near the $98,500 level, facing resistance at the 50-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend in price movement. Daily candlestick closures suggest that bears are in control of the market right now, but the key question remains about the point at which buyers will capitulate, which is still absent. This reflects a hesitation among investors in making clear buy or sell decisions.
As for the inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S., there has been a noticeable decline in recent weeks. Net inflows fell to $203.5 million last week after a $559.8 million inflow earlier, indicating reduced demand for Bitcoin. On the other hand, Ethereum ETFs saw an increase in net inflows to $420.1 million, reflecting growing investor interest in other cryptocurrencies.
From my perspective, one factor that may influence market movement is the significant decline in daily transaction volume on the Bitcoin network, which has decreased by 53% compared to its peak in September. This decline in activity reflects reduced interest in certain protocols, such as Runes, which could negatively affect Bitcoinโs movement in the short term. According to CryptoQuantโs estimates, Bitcoinโs fair value ranges between $48,000 and $95,000 based on current data.
Additionally, some governments continue to take regulatory steps that may impact Bitcoinโs movement. In Japan, authorities have officially requested companies like Apple and Google to ban unregistered cryptocurrency exchange apps such as Bybit, MEXC, and KuCoin. Apple has complied with the request, while Google has yet to respond. Such regulatory actions add further pressure on the market and may affect Bitcoin’s movement in the near future.
Despite the challenges Bitcoin is facing, there are some positive news stories contributing to the future outlook. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party announced plans to fully deregulate Bitcoin and make the country a global leader in venture capital and startups. This initiative could support Bitcoinโs future in Europe and increase interest in cryptocurrencies.
Regarding Bitcoinโs movement in recent weeks, we have seen some notable actions, such as the transfer of 14,000 long-dormant Bitcoins, reflecting significant market moves that could influence prices in the future. However, these moves were not directed towards exchanges, suggesting that these coins may be intended for long-term holding rather than immediate sale. In my opinion, this type of movement may indicate that some investors are accumulating Bitcoin during price dips.
We also witnessed the largest outflow from Bitcoin ETFs since 2022, reflecting general concern about the sustainability of the marketโs movement. However, some large market players, such as institutional investors or funds, are profiting by buying Bitcoin during downturns, which indicates potential long-term investment opportunities.
From my perspective, tariffs are one of the factors contributing to the prevailing anxiety. Trade tensions between the U.S. and certain countries, such as Mexico and Canada, and the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum, are contributing to market instability. These tariffs may raise new doubts about global economic stability, increasing uncertainty in financial markets. It is worth noting that U.S. President Trumpโs statements about imposing sanctions on Japan are increasing tensions, which could reflect on the Bitcoin market.
Despite the prevailing tension and anxiety in the market, there are still positive future expectations. I see a small chance for Bitcoinโs price to rise to $140,000 by the end of 2025. This forecast is based on several factors, including economic and geopolitical elements that may influence future demand for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
In conclusion, I can say that Bitcoin is facing significant challenges right now, but it still holds long-term investment opportunities. With uncertainty in the markets due to geopolitical and economic factors, it is important for investors to remain cautious and stay updated on rapid shifts that may affect Bitcoin and cryptocurrency movement in the short and medium term.
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