South African equities rise cautiously as May manufacturing report and US tariffs take focus

South African equities opened slightly higher on Tuesday, extending modest gains as the JSE FTSE Top 40 Index approached the 90,000-point threshold, supported by strength in energy minerals, distribution services and utilities.

Despite this early optimism, the market could come under pressure in the context of renewed geopolitical uncertainty following U.S. President Trump’s announcement of a 30% tariff on South African exports, effective from August 1.

President Cyril Ramaphosa promptly reaffirmed South Africa’s commitment to diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the dispute.

Market focus now shifts to the May manufacturing production data, due later this week. April manufacturing output contracted 6.3% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline, with notable weakness across motor vehicles, food and beverages, and basic metals sectors. A continued contraction would intensify concerns about South Africa’s export capacity and likely weigh on equity performance. Conversely, an upside surprise could reinforce investor confidence,