With just a week to go until the Senedd election the race is on a knife edge with Labour likely to be the largest party but potentially falling short of a majority according to the latest polling from Savanta ComRes.
Labour, on 36% of the constituency vote in this poll, may end up with a higher vote share than they did in 2016 due to the collapse of UKIP, but still end up with a similar, or even slightly fewer, number of seats than they did in 2016 due to an increase in support for the Conservatives, up 6pts in this poll to 27% compared to their performance in 2016.
Plaid Cymru, second largest party in terms of number of seats at the last election, may fall back into third place despite potentially gaining list seats, once again at the expense of UKIP.
The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party could also potentially make a breakthrough in the list if they achieve the 8% of the vote that this poll suggests.
Elsewhere there is little good news for the Liberal Democrats, while Reform UK look unlikely to harvest as many 2016 UKIP votes as they would have liked.
Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes said, “The race for the Senedd is truly fascinating, with so many potentially unexpected and unexplored factors at play. The collapse of the UKIP vote from 2016 in both the constituency and the list votes means that a large proportion of both is up for grabs; if the Conservatives can harvest enough of it, they could take constituencies away from Labour, depriving them of a potential majority.
“In the list, all three of the main parties in Wales could gain seats simply by UKIP being nowhere near as strong as they were last time, but the arrival of the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party could somewhat scupper the potential for gaining list seats for Labour, the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.”