Rishi Sunak remains odds-on at 1/3 to be in position as the Conservative Party leader at the next general election despite last-minute talks today with MPs.
A Tory rebellion in the controversial Rwanda bill could weaken his leadership and he is currently 7/2 to face a no confidence vote in December.
The next general election continues to be odds-on at 10/11 to take place between October-December 2024, despite reports of an early election next year.
Labour are 2/7 to win a majority, with a Tory majority as big as 11/1 when the country next goes to the polls.
Betfair Exchange: Rishi Sunak to be Tory leader at next general election
Yes: 1/3
No: 5/2
Betfair Exchange: Rishi Sunak to face confidence vote in December
Yes: 7/2
No: 1/100
Betfair Exchange: Rishi Sunak to face confidence vote before next General Election
Yes: 13/8
No: 4/9
Betfair Exchange: Year Rishi Sunak will be replaced as Tory leader
2023: 49/1
2024: 4/7
2025 or later: 13/8
Betfair Exchange: Next Tory leader
Kemi Badenoch: 10/3
Penny Mordaunt: 5/1
Suella Braverman: 7/1
James Cleverly: 17/2
Nigel Farage 19/1
Betfair Exchange: When will the next general election take place?
2023: 999/1
January-March 2024: 13/1
April-June 2024: 13/5
July-September: 17/2
October-December: 10/11
2025 or later: 11/1
Betfair Exchange: Next general election – overall majority
Labour majority: 2/7
No overall majority: 11/2
Conservative majority: 11/1
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “It is a big day for Rishi Sunak and reports suggest he is spending it trying to convince his MPs to back his Rwanda Bill.
“If the Rwanda bill fails to pass through the House of Commons, we’re expecting the Betfair Exchange markets to move as the Prime Minister will have to face up to a major blow for his premiership.
“If there is a rebellion in the ranks, his grip on the party could be questioned and he is currently 7/2 to face a no confidence vote this month.
“There are claims some in the ranks are unhappy but he is still an overwhelming 1/3 to be the Conservative leader at the next election.
“While reports suggest we could see an election as early as May next year, late autumn looks more likely with the next election to take place between October and December still odds-on at 10/11.
“Looking at what the punters on Betfair Exchange are predicting for when the country next goes to the polls, Labour are the overwhelming favourites to win an overall majority at 2/7, with Sunak’s party 11/1 outsiders to retain their majority.”
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