New research from Ortec Finance, the leading global provider of risk and return management solutions for pension funds and other institutions, reveals pension fund managers are increasingly worried about the risk of global stagflation (please see the attached press release).
Its study found six in ten (57%) pension fund manager are ‘very concerned’ about the threat of stagflation while another 40% are ‘quite concerned’ about the risk of high inflation combining with low economic growth. Ortec interviewed pension fund managers in the US, UK, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, Switzerland, and the Nordics.
The international study with pension fund managers responsible for a collective $1.946 trillion assets under management reveals that this concern is very real, with 34% of pension fund managers predicting that the USA will enter a recession within the next six months. This rises to almost nine in ten (89%) within the next 12 months.
Many pension fund managers believe the Eurozone and the UK won’t be far behind. Almost half (47%) predict a recession in these regions within the next nine months, rising to 73% predicting a recession within the next 12 months in the Eurozone and 73% in the UK.
There is less concern about China and Emerging Markets in the short term with only 9% and 10% of pension fund managers respectively predicting they will enter a recession within the next six months. However, 62% expect China to be in recession within 12 months and 70% believe Emerging Markets will be in recession during the same period.