Betting prices on the Smarkets exchange suggest there is around a 1-in-3 chance that the Conservatives will replace Boris Johnson as leader before the next general election.
The Chancellor Rishi Sunak remains the favourite to succeed Johnson as the Prime Minister, with an implied 26% probability based on Smarkets’ latest odds.
There has been a significant market move for the Liberal Democrats to win the North Shropshire by-election with their odds moving from 9/1 into 5/1 (17%). They are now seen as the most likely challengers to the Tories in the seat vacated by Owen Paterson.
The betting markets are more confident over the Conservatives’ chances of retaining Old Bexley and Sidcup in the upcoming by-election in that seat. The Tories are given a 92% chance there with Labour a distant second at 6%.
Matthew Shaddick, Smarkets Head of Political Markets said, “With the Tories’ poll numbers on the slide and the PM getting a hammering in the media, one might expect the odds to suggest his position is under threat, but we’ve yet to see the market move much in response to the latest news.
“Smarkets users don’t yet feel there is any imminent prospect of Johnson being replaced, making it around a 2-in-3 chance he leads his party into the next general election.
“On the other hand, there definitely are signs of trouble for the Conservatives in the forthcoming North Shropshire by-election.
“Owen Paterson’s former seat has been a rock solid Tory stronghold recently but, if the odds are any guide, we shouldn’t rule out a shock Liberal Democrat gain.
“Next month’s Old Bexley and Sidcup contest looks less likely to cause the PM any major worries. The latest prices give his party a 92% chance of holding the seat.
“Labour appear to be the main challengers but the signs are that this one is not going to be particularly competitive.”