Hospitality groups’ like-for-like sales flat again in July but new openings fuel growth

Britain’s top pub, bar and restaurant groups continued a flat summer of trading with a fractional year-on-year drop of 0.1% in like-for like sales in July, the latest CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker reveals.

It comes after level sales in June and a drop of 1.0% in May. The Tracker’s comparisons have now been static or negative in five of the first seven months of 2025.

Managed pubs outperformed restaurants throughout the first half of the year, and they again achieved the best growth of the Tracker’s segments in July, at 0.6%.

They were boosted by periods of warm weather in many parts of Britain, but comparisons were held down by the Euro 2024 football tournament, which brought millions of people out to watch games in pubs last July.

Managed restaurant groups lagged pubs with 0.2% growth, but this was the first year-on-year increase since December 2024, and a very tentative sign that consumer confidence is moving in the right direction. Bars’ sales were down by 4.3% from July 2024, and the on the-go segment slipped by 4.5%. Growth inside and outside the M25 stood at +0.7% and -0.3% respectively—the first time since March that London has outperformed the rest of the country.

The Tracker—produced by CGA by NIQ in partnership with RSM UK—provides more positive indicators of total sales in hospitality, including at venues opened by groups in the last 12 months. These were 3.2% ahead of the same month in 2024—broadly in line with the UK’s rate of inflation in 2025, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index.

Karl Chessell, director – hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NIQ, said: “The summer has brought little respite from the intense trading challenges facing hospitality, and real-terms growth is elusive.

“Pubs can be more satisfied than restaurant groups, which have had to work very hard to sustain footfall and cope with more sharp rises in the costs of labour and food. Solid growth in total sales shows operators and investors remain confident enough to open new sites, though if trading patterns continue, they will be forced to make some difficult decisions on spending.

The sector remains resilient and can turn round recent trends but needs an upturn in consumers’ spending confidence.” Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK, said: “July’s results underscore the sector’s ongoing struggles, with performance largely flat or in decline.

It’s not all bad news though – while pubs saw a small uptick in growth, this was set against a UEFA Euro finals fuelled boost last year, so the underlying growth is stronger than it appears. In addition, restaurants may take solace with a return to modest growth following June’s disappointing contraction. However, with significant cost pressures and dwindling cash reserves, these are not the results the industry needed, and with both business and consumer uncertainty mounting ahead of the budget there is a real concern that things will get worse before they get better.”