Despite ‘a challenging global geopolitical landscape’ there is a small rise in retail demand

This year, Easter is in April, while last year it was in March. This calendar change distorts the year on year sales comparisons – resulting in an artificially higher April, but lower March sales.

UK Total retail sales increased by 1.1% year on year in March, against a growth of 3.5% in March 2024. This was below the 3-month average growth of 1.6% and above the 12-month average growth of 0.6%.

Food sales increased by 1.6% year on year in March, against a growth of 8.3% in March 2024. This was below the 3-month average growth of 2.3% and below the 12-month average growth of 2.2%.

Non-Food sales increased by 0.6% year on year in March, against a decline of 0.4% in March 2024. This was below the 3-month average growth of 1.1% and above the 12-month average decline of 0.8%.

In-Store Non-Food sales decreased by 0.1% year on year in March, against a growth of 0.1% in March 2024. This was below the 3-month average growth of 0.6% and above the 12-month average decline of 1.7%.

Online Non-Food sales increased by 1.8% year on year in March, against a decline of 1.4% in March 2024. This was below the 3-month average growth of 1.9% and above the 12-month average growth of 0.9%.

The online penetration rate (the proportion of Non-Food items bought online) increased to 37.1% in March from 36.6% in March 2024. This was above the 12-month average of 36.8%.

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said, “Despite a challenging global geopolitical landscape, the small increase in both food and non-food sales masked signs of underlying strengthening of demand given March 2025’s comparison with last year’s early Easter.

“The improving weather made for a particularly strong final week, with gardening and DIY equipment flying off the shelves. Jewellery and beauty products were helped by Mother’s Day, though sales of bigger ticket items like furniture remained weak. Retailers are making final preparations for Easter, with food expected to be the big winner next month.

“Since the start of April, retailers have had to contend with £5 billion pounds of new government-imposed costs as a result of increases to the National Living Wage and National Insurance. This rises to £7bn when the new packaging tax comes into effect in October and will undoubtedly increase inflation later in the year and hold back critical investment in high streets across the country. Government has ample opportunities to kick start that investment by ensuring that no shop pays more as part of their planned reforms to business rates and that the Employment Rights Bill doesn’t reduce the availability of entry level and part time jobs. Investment and growth are what the economy needs right now.”

Linda Ellett, UK Head of Consumer, Retail & Leisure, KPMG, said, “As Spring weather arrived, house and garden related purchases and gifts for Mother’s Day drove retail sales growth in March.

“Amidst downbeat consumer confidence in the UK’s economic outlook, and many households facing rising costs, retail sales growth feels an achievement.   But with non-food sales only climbing around 1% on average, competition means there are some retailers really struggling whilst others win, especially online.

“Retailers will be pushing for higher growth rates as we move toward summer and holiday season, particularly as they are now paying higher wage costs and facing volatility and potential impact on their supply chains due to global tariffs.”

Food & Drink sector performance | Sarah Bradbury, CEO, IGD, said, “Shopper confidence fell from 4 to -2 in March after a brief boost in February. Rising geopolitical uncertainty and the imminent increases in household bills will have contributed to this decline.

“While half-term, Bank Holidays, and Easter may temporarily lift sales, the potential negative impact of U.S. tariffs and recession concerns are likely to keep confidence low. We may have already seen the peak for some time.”