Document looks at three of the most plausible Brexit scenarios
The UK economy would be worse off after Brexit whatever deal is struck with Brussels, according to a leaked analysis by the Government.
The document was meant to be shown confidentially to cabinet ministers this week but was leaked to the BuzzFeed.
According to the news website, Whitehall analysis has found that growth over the next 15 years could be up to 8 per cent lower in a “no deal” scenario, which would see the UK revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. Even if the UK can negotiate a comprehensive free trade agreement, the estimated growth would be down 5 per cent over the next 15 years.
Alternatively, if the UK were to retain access to the single market through membership of the European Economic Area, the loss would be 2 per cent.
The document titled EU Exit Analysis, and drawn up for the Department for Exiting the EU, is said to look at the likely impact of different scenarios.
A government spokesperson has told the Guardian: “We have already set out that the government is undertaking a wide range of ongoing analysis in support of our EU exit negotiations and preparations. We have been clear that we are not prepared to provide a running commentary on any aspect of this internal work and that ministers have a duty not to publish anything that could risk exposing our negotiation position.”
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