A no-deal Brexit has seemingly become more likely in the last week according to prices from the Smarkets exchange, with the chance of a UK-EU trade deal by the end of the year down from a high of 90% to 69%, though this is up from 45% early this morning.
Some Conservative MPs and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon have called on Boris Johnson to extend the Brexit transition period to avoid a no-deal scenario, but this is given just a 1-in-5 chance.
Patrick Flynn, Smarkets Political Analyst said, “The chance of a UK-EU trade agreement being struck this year is now around 69% at Smarkets having dropped in recent days after the UK and EU missed yet another deadline in trade talks on Sunday. This is a fast-moving situation, however, as these odds have improved by 24 points this morning alone.
“Regardless of whether a trade deal were to be agreed by both sides, MEPs would not have enough time to approve it, so it is unclear whether EU negotiators will want to agree to a deal before the end of the year – even if only a provisional one – without explicit support from the European Parliament.
“Besides Brexit, Boris Johnson is also facing a huge surge in coronavirus infections domestically, with countries in Europe and across the world closing their borders to the UK in response – a potential precursor to the chaos that could await in the event of a no-deal Brexit in January. The problems are piling up for Johnson, who is subsequently now at 37% to leave his post before the end of next year.”