The latest ComRes poll for the Sunday Express puts the Conservative Party one point ahead of Labour if voters were to go to the polls tomorrow, following the election of Boris Johnson as the new Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister.
The new poll, the first conducted by ComRes since the new Prime Minister was confirmed, is the first to show a Conservative lead since early March and has the Brexit Party with their lowest projected vote share since they were first included in the standard party prompt in May. If these figures were replicated at a General Election, modelling by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus shows that the Conservatives would be the largest party but some 48 seats short of a majority.
Elsewhere in the poll, the public tend to agree that Boris Johnson should have time to deliver Brexit and prefer him to some of his rivals, although a majority believe he will be a terrible PM:
- Almost three quarters agree that he should be given a proper chance to deliver Brexit before any attempt is made by MPs to try to bring the Government down and trigger a General Election (72%);
- Two thirds agree that he will make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn (64%) and;
- Three in five disagree that they would prefer to continue having Theresa May as Prime Minister than Boris Johnson (59%) but;
- A majority agree that he will make a terrible Prime Minister (55%).
Chris Hopkins, Head of Politics at ComRes, said of the poll findings, “As Boris Johnson begins his premiership we have seen an anticipated bump in Conservative support, generally at the expense of the Brexit Party. However, while the public agree that he should be given the necessary time to deliver Brexit, a majority are sceptical as to how good he may be as Prime Minister. With a wafer-thin majority and the clock ticking towards the 31st October, the new PM will do well to sustain or build on this narrowest of poll leads.”
Full Results of the ComRes/Sunday Express Poll
Voting Intention
Base: All respondents likely to vote and expressing a voting intention (n=1,659)
| Con | 28% | +3 |
| Lab | 27% | -1 |
| LD | 19% | +2 |
| Brex | 16% | -3 |
| Green | 4% | -1 |
| SNP | 3% | -1 |
| UKIP | 1% | – |
| Other | 2% | – |
(nb adds up to 99% due to rounding)
(% in second column relate to ComRes/Britain Elects poll on 18th July 2019)
- Do you agree or disagree with these statements?
Boris Johnson should be given a proper chance to deliver Brexit before any attempt is made by MPs to try to bring the Government down and trigger a General Election
| Total (%) | |
| Agree | 72% |
| Disagree | 28% |
Base: All respondents excluding don’t know (n=1,725)
Boris Johnson should revoke Article 50 and call a second referendum on EU membership
| Total (%) | |
| Agree | 42% |
| Disagree | 58% |
Base: All respondents excluding don’t know (n=1,646)
Boris Johnson will make a good Prime Minister
| Total (%) | |
| Agree | 42% |
| Disagree | 58% |
Base: All respondents excluding don’t know (n=1,362)
Boris Johnson will make a terrible Prime Minister
| Total (%) | |
| Agree | 55% |
| Disagree | 45% |
Base: All respondents excluding don’t know (n=1,393)
Boris Johnson will make a better Prime Minister than Jeremy Corbyn
| Total (%) | |
| Agree | 64% |
| Disagree | 36% |
Base: All respondents excluding don’t know (n=1,533)
Jeremy Corbyn would make a better Prime Minister than Boris Johnson
| Total (%) | |
| Agree | 31% |
| Disagree | 69% |
Base: All respondents excluding don’t know (n=1,557)
I would prefer to continue having Theresa May as Prime Minister than Boris Johnson
| Total (%) | |
| Agree | 41% |
| Disagree | 59% |
Base: All respondents excluding don’t know (n=1,507)
Methodology Note: ComRes surveyed 2,029 British adults on 24 to 25 July 2019. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. All questions were also weighted by past vote recall and likelihood to vote. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comresglobal.com
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