Betfair: The Tories ‘may soon be preparing a leaving party for Boris Johnson’ after a ‘kicking’ in the North Shropshire by-election

Betfair Exchange punters give Boris Johnson a 53% chance of being replaced as PM by the 2022 Conservative conference and just a 47% chance of holding his job after his party lost the North Shropshire by-election, a traditional Tory safe seat.

Before the election, punters had given Johnson a 66% chance of holding his position for the autumn meeting, but a difficult week for the PM has turned around his fortunes.

2022 is now the 4/5 favourite to be the year that Johnson is replaced as PM, with 2024 or later next at 11/5 whilst Rishi Sunak is the 9/4 favourite to be the next Conservative leader, with Liz Truss next at 9/2.

Betfair Exchange – Boris Johnson PM for 2022 Conservative conference

Yes – 21/20 (47%)

No – 10/11 (53%)

Betfair Exchange – Boris Johnson exit date

2021 – 24/1

2022 – 4/5

2023 – 6/1

2024 or later – 11/5

Betfair Exchange – Next Conservative leader after Boris Johnson

Rishi Sunak – 9/4

Liz Truss – 9/2

Jeremy Hunt – 9/1

Michael Gove – 10/1

Sajid Javid – 18/1

Tom Tugendhat – 23/1

Priti Patel – 26/1

Ben Wallace – 31/1

Dominic Raab – 49/1

Matt Hancock – 79/1

Jacob Rees-Mogg – 94/1

Betfair Exchange – Government after next election (first new Cabinet)

Conservative majority – 11/8

Labour minority – 7/4

Conservative minority 9/2

Labour majority – 5/1

Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said, “The Conservatives may soon be preparing a leaving party for Boris Johnson as Betfair Exchange punters give him a 53% chance of being replaced as PM before the party’s conference.

“A disastrous result in the North Shropshire by-election means Johnson has only a 47% chance of remaining in office for the Conservative conference in autumn, with 2022 now the 4/5 favourite to be the year that he is replaced.

“Rishi Sunak is the clear 9/4 favourite to be the next Conservative leader, with Liz Truss next at 9/2.”