Betfair Exchange punters give Boris Johnson a 53% chance of being replaced as PM by the 2022 Conservative conference and just a 47% chance of holding his job after his party lost the North Shropshire by-election, a traditional Tory safe seat.
Before the election, punters had given Johnson a 66% chance of holding his position for the autumn meeting, but a difficult week for the PM has turned around his fortunes.
2022 is now the 4/5 favourite to be the year that Johnson is replaced as PM, with 2024 or later next at 11/5 whilst Rishi Sunak is the 9/4 favourite to be the next Conservative leader, with Liz Truss next at 9/2.
Betfair Exchange – Boris Johnson PM for 2022 Conservative conference
Yes – 21/20 (47%)
No – 10/11 (53%)
Betfair Exchange – Boris Johnson exit date
2021 – 24/1
2022 – 4/5
2023 – 6/1
2024 or later – 11/5
Betfair Exchange – Next Conservative leader after Boris Johnson
Rishi Sunak – 9/4
Liz Truss – 9/2
Jeremy Hunt – 9/1
Michael Gove – 10/1
Sajid Javid – 18/1
Tom Tugendhat – 23/1
Priti Patel – 26/1
Ben Wallace – 31/1
Dominic Raab – 49/1
Matt Hancock – 79/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg – 94/1
Betfair Exchange – Government after next election (first new Cabinet)
Conservative majority – 11/8
Labour minority – 7/4
Conservative minority 9/2
Labour majority – 5/1
Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said, “The Conservatives may soon be preparing a leaving party for Boris Johnson as Betfair Exchange punters give him a 53% chance of being replaced as PM before the party’s conference.
“A disastrous result in the North Shropshire by-election means Johnson has only a 47% chance of remaining in office for the Conservative conference in autumn, with 2022 now the 4/5 favourite to be the year that he is replaced.
“Rishi Sunak is the clear 9/4 favourite to be the next Conservative leader, with Liz Truss next at 9/2.”
Leave a Commment