50% or greater upside as Bitcoin continues as an ‘acceleration phase’ of cycle

Most Bitcoin rallies over the last decade share a theme, they accelerate as they progress. The angle of ascent steepens.

Trading.biz analyst Cory Mitchell notes that “Major rallies often start as a bowl shape, but then the price accelerates and the rally starts to look more like a “J”.

Bitcoin is in this acceleration phase, which means the price could extend to $70,000 or higher in a matter of months.”

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Bitcoin is up 175% since the late 2022 bottom. That may seem like a lot, but for how Bitcoin moves, it isn’t.

• From the 2020 bottom, Bitcoin advanced 1586% (1692% to the high later that year)
• Off the 2019 bottom, Bitcoin advanced 345%
• Off the 2015 bottom, Bitcoin rallied 12,804%

Each of these rallies was preceded by a 70% or greater in Bitcoin’s price. That could be important because the decline that preceded the 2023 rally was 78%. Large declines are typically followed by large rallies.

Not all 70% declines have been followed by a rally of 300% or more. Since 2013, there have been five drops of 70% or more (with at least a 70% rally following), not including the 2022 decline. In 2014 the price rallied 101% after a 70% decline and then fell another 78%. All other rallies have been 345% or larger. The other three rallies were 1600% or more.

The 2022 drop was the sixth drop of more than 70% in the last decade. The rally that has followed is still playing out.

The current rally has already well exceeded the small false-start rally of 2014. Therefore, it does seem like the current rally is legitimate, and likely to be large, following one of the largest price declines in a decade.

If Bitcoin can even match the next smallest rally of the last decade (345% off the low) that puts a target near $70,000, a new all-time high. Since historically most rallies have been bigger than that, a $100,000 price target isn’t far-fetched, even within the next six months.

While that is about 530% off the 2022 low, and about 120% above current levels, that is still a very small rally compared to past Bitcoin rallies. Other than the 345% rally of 2019, the next smallest rally of the last decade was 1692% in 2020/2021.

While there is compelling evidence for a further rally in Bitcoin, investors should understand that the past may not be indicative of what happens in the future. Where the price goes will be determined by the actions of those buying and selling and the enthusiasm with which they do it.

The risk must also be noted. Over the last decade, there have been six drops of 70% or more, and well over a dozen drops of 50% or more (followed by at least 50% rallies in between). It is volatile, and may not be suitable for all investors. One of those large drops could occur at any time.