With Liz Truss currently a 93% chance to be the next Prime Minister according to Smarkets prices, many eyes in Westminster are now turning to who will serve in the key cabinet positions in the next government.
Kwasi Kwarteng, a key Truss ally, is clear favourite to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, at a 79% chance.
Former leadership candidate Suella Braverman is a 58% chance to be Home Secretary, while James Cleverly (46%) is favoured to become Foreign Secretary. Kemi Badenoch (9%) is given an outside chance of taking Truss’ old position.
Looking ahead to the next general election, Labour recently moved ahead of the Conservatives in our market on who will win the most seats, now with a 52% chance.
Patrick Flynn, Smarkets Political Analyst said, “Irrespective of its composition, the next cabinet will have a very difficult political environment to navigate, facing arguably the biggest threat to the Conservatives’ hegemony of their 12 years in power.
“The government faces a major cost-of-living crisis and wider economic woes that, if economic forecasts are to be believed, could still be fresh in voters’ minds by January 2025, the latest possible date for the next general election.
“Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is in double figures with some pollsters, and we see in our market that Keir Starmer’s party is now favoured to win the most seats at the next general election for the first time.
“The prospect of Liz Truss leading the Tories into the next election does not seem to have impressed those trading on Smarkets during the course of the last month.
“The Conservatives had a small bounce in our ‘most seats’ market after Boris Johnson’s resignation, but they have slowly traded down to a new low during the course of the leadership election.”