Leading academics from across Cranfield University are calling for a new approach to UK resilience.
Writing in today’s Financial Times, the academics believe that as well as lessons learnt from the response to COVID-19 there is a much wider lesson to be learnt about how the UK identifies, prepares and responds to threats and risks, such as to our safety, our national security and from climate change.
They believe the UK must shift from simplyโฏclassifyingโฏthreats using aโฏtraditional risk-based probabilityโฏversusโฏconsequenceโฏassessment, toโฏa moreโฏdetailedโฏanalysisโฏincluding their interdependencies,โฏsocial impact, cascadeโฏand recoverabilityโฏthrough aโฏnewโฏconnected approach to resilience.
Crucial to a new UK approach to quantifyingโฏrisk, andโฏour preparations and ability to recoverโฏfrom crises is the inclusion of all โFive Capitalsโ: Natural, Human, Social, Built and Financial and their interdependencies and feedbacks, that make up the system in which we live.
Professor David Denyer, Professor of Leadership and Organisational Change at Cranfield University, said: โCOVID-19 was not a โblack swanโ. Similar events were widely predicted and listed as the nationโs biggest risk so why were we not better prepared both to prevent it and recover from it?
โAs we have seen with COVID-19, too often, investmentโฏin resilience measuresโฏareโฏmade during or after aโฏcrisis. If we are toโฏbuild a more resilient nation, it isโฏvitalโฏwe embrace a new approach.โฏYou simply cannot continue to quantify risk on a basic X Y graph.
โWe need to consider not just theโฏimmediate responses toโฏtheseโฏthreatsโฏbut what long-term plansโฏcanโฏbe put in place to secureโฏtheโฏresilience ofโฏourโฏsociety andโฏourโฏnatural system.
โAs a nation, weโฏmustโฏfocus on building adaptive capacity in organisations and infrastructure, and businessโฏand Governmentโฏmustโฏproactively invest inโฏresilience to future crises where there isn’t yet an immediate economic argument.โ
Dr Simon Harwood, Director of Defence and Security at Cranfield University, said: โWe need to think of national security in a wider context by looking at the interconnectedness of threats such as climate change and food security.
“Our preparedness needs to look across the whole of the resource spectrum at the nationโs disposal. Too often the response to a crisis, is to call up the armed forces but what if they were deployed at scale in a future combat? A new approach is needed which identifies risks and resources across the board rather than in silos.โ
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