Watch out Carney! New betting markets launched to beat government economic forecasters

Paddy Power and the Adam Smith Institute are launching two betting markets to predict unemployment and high inflation figures in 2015.

The betting markets, which open today, aim to “take the government’s experts on at their own game” and use the knowledge of the crowds to predict figures.

The launch coincides with Carney’s first major speech as governor of the Bank of England this afternoon and follows his announcement earlier this month that UK interest rates will remain low until unemployment falls.

Sam Bowman, research director of the Adam Smith Institute, said: “No individual can know enough about the economy to make a really reliable prediction about it. By combining the local knowledge of thousands of people, betting markets can out-predict any panel of experts. If these markets catch on, the government should consider outsourcing all of its forecasts to prediction markets instead of expert forecasters.”

Rory Scott from Paddy Power said: “Mr Carney – forget your fancy financial models; let’s see where the great British public put their pound instead. Failing that, perhaps the solution to topping up the Bank of England coffers is to take advantage of Paddy Power’s 7/1 for inflation to be 2% lower come 1 June 2015.”

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