Weโve seen a significant weekend rally across the major coins. BTC broke to new all-time highs, surging from $111,000 to $118,700, while ETH pushed up from $2,750 to nearly $3,000 at time of writing.
This price strength is backed by growing market conviction and strong macro tailwinds.
Volatility reawakens
BTCโs 7-day implied volatility (IV) rose from 30% to 40% โ a meaningful jump suggesting renewed market momentum. This is the highest short-term volatility weโve seen since mid-May.
Meanwhile, ETHโs short-dated volatility is holding steady around 65%. That stability, in the face of rising prices, tells us traders still expect significant movement, and theyโre positioning accordingly.
Macro tailwinds driving risk-on sentiment
The biggest macro driver is the passing of Trumpโs Big Beautiful Bill (BBB), a massive fiscal stimulus package signaling looser policy ahead. Historically, similar environments (such as during COVID) sparked sharp rallies in crypto as excess liquidity flowed into risk assets.
While thereโs only a 7% chance of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting, the broader rate trajectory is clearly downward over the next 6-12 months. Lower rates make capital cheaper, driving more aggressive positioning in assets like BTC.
Add to this the record $300 million inflow into BlackRockโs ETHA ETF late last week, and itโs clear institutional appetite is building again, particularly for Ethereum.
Derive option market insights
The options flow is backing this narrative. Almost 20% of the open interest on Deriveโs Sept 26 expiry for BTC is concentrated at the $130K call, suggesting traders expect gradual but persistent price rises over the next three months.
Even more telling is that traders are betting on BTC breaking $120K by the end of the week (July 18), accounting for 10% of BTC weekend options volume. Thatโs a short-term, aggressive bet on further upside in the next few days.
For ETH, bullish sentiment is even more pronounced. 45% of ETHโs open interest on the July 18 expiry is concentrated on the $3,400 strike, with that one strike making up 16% of ETH weekend volume. That level of positioning shows traders are not just bullish, theyโre expecting a breakout.
Price predictions
- 20% chance ETH >$3,600 by September 26
- 10% chance BTC >$150K by September 26
- 11% chance BTC >$180K by December 26
Between the fiscal backdrop, the rate outlook, and resurgent ETF flows, the market appears to be positioning for a major upward leg. While volatility remains moderate compared to 2020-21, directional conviction is growing, especially in ETH. Weโre watching closely for confirmation of this trend over the coming week.
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