The British Ministry of Defence has said Russia has not conducted long-range missile strikes for 21 days and it is likely the pause is to “preserve stocks” for winter strikes.
Russia has been heavily focussed on bombing grain facilities in southern Ukraine on the Danube ports.
The MoD said, “Russian Air Force Long Range Aviation (LRA) aircraft have not carried out strikes on Ukraine since September 21, 2023, for 21 days, it is likely that the LRA has almost exhausted its reserves of combat-ready AS-23 (X-101) missile ammunition after winter campaign.”
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The latest intelligence report added, “This time, it is likely that Russian LRA are preserving existing stocks of AS-23 missiles as well as using this pause to increase useable stocks in anticipation of further heavy strikes against Ukraine over the winter.”
Russia has focused its airstrikes against grain-related facilities, using Shahed one-way-attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA UAVs).
This includes strikes against Ukrainian Danube River ports, which likely require a high level of accuracy due to the target’s proximity to the NATO country, Romanian which borders the ports.
“It is likely that Russia used Shahed OWA UAVs on these targets because of their better accuracy over other types of air-launched missiles,” the report added.