Reform reaps rewards in local elections as Labour and the Conservatives lack purpose and position

As Reform celebrates its victories from last week’s local elections, Opinium’s latest poll looks at where the party’s success may have stemmed from.

A plurality of voters think that the Reform Party knows what it stands for (net +10; agree 40%, disagree 30%).

This is in contrast to Labour (net -16), and the Conservatives (net -12). Similarly, voters believe that Reform has a clear sense of purpose (net +5; agree 37%, disagree 32%), compared to those who think the same about Labour (net -17) and the Conservatives (net -20).

Reform’s success can partly be attributed to the reputational damage suffered by the major parties, with Reform receiving better ratings on all key attributes apart from being tolerant:

Crucially, while voters don’t think Reform is ready for government (net -23), voters think Reform is more ready for government that the Conservatives (who are on net -32).

Reform deep dive on key issues

When it comes to key local issues, Reform is the best performing party on only one issue: the impact of immigration locally (19% trust Reform most on this vs 12% for Labour). Indeed Labour is the most trusted party on nearly all local matters, although the real winner is “none of the above.”

Looking at Reform policies in depth, the party has net negative ratings on most issues tested. The demographic breakdown suggests some potential tensions in the Reform coalition. For example, older men like their immigration policies (net +8), but dislike their approach to the NHS (net -11) and the economy (-9). In addition, women under 40 are neutral on public services (net +0; 26% approve, 26% disapprove), despite disliking the approach to immigration (net -9%; 25% approve, 34% disapprove).

Starmer’s week gets worse with dip in approval rating

The Prime Minister will be hoping this is a week to forget, as Opinium poll finds Keir Starmer has suffered another small dip in his approval rating, dropping a point from -33% to -34%. Kemi Badenoch has also seen a dip of 2 points from -19% to -21%, reversing her small improvements last week.

Interestingly, despite his local elections success, Nigel Farage’s net approval has dropped 6 points in the last week, from -12% to -17% (difference due to rounding).

Adam Drummond, head of political and social research at Opinium, said: “In a way this is just yet another set of local elections where voters have judged the country to be in a terrible state and hammered the government accordingly.

“The difference is that the traditional tool for doing so, the main opposition party, is also discredited so voters have moved to the next available one.

“It doesn’t matter that voters have a negative view of Reform’s policies or their leader, or even whether they think Reform would govern the country well.

“The mood of the public is that the Tories failed, Labour are failing so could Reform really be worse?”