Oil price supported by geopolitical risks

Crude oil futures remain steady, supported by geopolitical tensions and a rebound in Chinese crude imports.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine continues to threaten supply stability, particularly from major producers such as Russia.

Given the prevailing geopolitical risks, the market is likely to maintain a bullish near-term outlook.

Further intensification of the conflict could exacerbate supply constraints, particularly from Russia, sustaining upward pressure on global crude prices in the short term.

Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest crude importer, is signalling a recovery in oil demand. Projections suggest near-record imports by late November, offering additional support for crude prices. This rebound underscores renewed optimism about China’s economic momentum, potentially offsetting concerns about weakening global demand.

Attention is also turning to the upcoming EIA crude oil inventory data (to be published today), which is expected to show a modest increase in stocks compared to previous reports. Inventories for the week ending November 15 are expected to rise modestly by 0.8 million barrels, down from a 2.089 million-barrel increase the previous week.

While this could suggest softer demand, particularly if it indicates continued stock builds, the potential for ongoing supply-side tightening implies that the global oil market will likely remain bullish in the near term. However, should the inventory data point to a notable slowdown in demand, it could prompt a more bearish medium-term outlook for crude prices, particularly if the increase in stocks is perceived as a signal of weakening global consumption.