‘No-deal’ Brexit can cost UK economy £50bn, study commissioned by Sadiq Khan shows


Study concludes “the harder the Brexit, the more severe the economic damage could be”

As Britain gears to leave the EU in March 2019, London Mayor Sadiq Khan had commissioned a set of economic studies to find what would happen if the country leaves with no deal on the single market, customs union or transition arrangements?

And the answer is half a million fewer jobs and nearly £50bn less investment by 2030.

Today’s analysis models five possible scenarios for leaving the EU, stating the worst option could be a “lost decade” for the British economy. Khan had commissioned this taxpayer-funded impact assessments after Brexit Secretary David Davis said the government had not done such work.

The assessment, carried out by Cambridge Econometrics, says economic output across the UK could be on average between 3 per cent lower by 2030 than it would if Britain were to remain within the single market and customs union. The hit to London is calculated at 2 per cent.

Khan told media: “This independent analysis should help guide the Government to the best outcome for London and the UK. If the Government continue to mishandle the negotiations we could be heading for a lost decade of lower growth and lower employment.”

The report concludes that while every Brexit outcome would harm the UK economy, “the harder the Brexit, the more severe the economic damage could be”.