New polling suggests MPs divided over when next election should be

New polling from market research consultancy Savanta of over 100 cross-party members of parliament suggests that May (31%) and November (30%) are the most popular dates among parliamentarians for the next general election.

When asked “when do you think the next UK general election should be held?”, one in three (31%) MPs chose May 2024.

This includes one in five (22%) Conservative MPs who took part in the research, with one Conservative MP commenting that “things are unlikely to improve much over the next 10 months, but they could get slightly worse”. Another said that there “is no point in dragging it out”.

The next most frequently chosen option among the 102 cross-party MPs was November 2024 (30%), driven by a clear preference among Conservative MPs (36%) for a later date. MPs across Labour, Conservative and SNP all commented that a November election could allow more time for the economy to recover.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “It’s clear that – unsurprisingly – there is a strong preference among Labour MPs to have an election sooner compared to Conservative MPs. But there is a significant proportion of Conservative MPs who appear almost fatalistic about their prospects in a general election – and apparently see no way of victory.”

There is a strong party divide on their preferred timing of the next general election. Over 60% of Labour MPs polled would prefer an election in May or earlier, whereas only 25% of Conservative MPs feel similarly. MPs were given the option of February 2024 onwards due to the timing of the fieldwork.

This divide is replicated depending on how marginal MPs seats are. The most popular option for those with a majority of less than 20% is for November 2024 (35%), whereas those with ‘safer’ seats of majorities over 20% express a preference for May (36%).