Labour market continues to loosen, with further impact to come from recent policy changes

The UK unemployment rate came in at 4.5% in Q1, exactly in line with Cebr’s forecast.

The rate was up on both the quarter and the year, suggesting that the labour market is loosening.

Other indicators support this view. For instance, the number of payrolled employees declined for a third consecutive month in March, while vacancies fell for a 34^th straight period in the three months to April.

Looking ahead, these metrics are expected to worsen further, due in part to changes in policy from April that increased costs for employers. Cebr projects that the unemployment rate will peak at 4.7% later this year.