Labour lead Conservatives by 17 points as Tories leak votes to Reform UK

Labour’s lead over the Conservative Party stands at 17 points, according to the latest voting intention poll from Savanta.

The poll, conducted over the last weekend (12-14 January), sees Labour on 44% of the vote, down one point from the week before, and the Conservatives on 27%, up by one point in the same period.

Savanta’s first two polls of 2024 have both shown Labour leads in the high teens, with week-on-week change well within the statistical margin of error and, if replicated at a General Election, would point to a large Labour majority.

However, only one Savanta poll since mid-November 2023 has shown a Labour vote share at 45% or higher, and both main parties have been averaging a lower vote share in Savanta polls since December than they were in Autumn 2023.

Breaking down the 2019 Conservative vote in this poll, Rishi Sunak’s party appear to be retaining just six in ten (60%) of their voters from the last election. Around one in seven (14%) say they’d directly switch to Labour, while around one in ten say that they’re either undecided (9%) or would vote for Reform UK (11%).

Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta said, “The polling picture for Rishi Sunak has looked bleak ever since he took office, and the first handful of polls in 2024 have been no different. As the Prime Minister faces an anxious wait to see the extent of his party’s Rwanda rebellion, it feels like a huge moment in his premiership.”

“On the one hand, if he passes the Bill and flights to Rwanda take off, Sunak can evidence to the electorate, including the significant proportion that are haemorrhaging to Reform UK, that he has delivered on an immigration pledge that matters to a large chunk of would-be Tory voters.”

“However, if the Bill is defeated or the rebellion is extensive, Sunak continues to look weak and lacking control over his own party. The electorate, however unconvinced they may be of Labour, don’t vote for divided parties and weak incumbent Prime Ministers, and a disastrous result in the Commons later today could be the first nail in this government’s coffin ahead of the next election.”