Crude oil prices continue to hover near their lows and remain at risk.
The potential for progress in Russia–Ukraine ceasefire talks raises concerns that an increase in Russian oil exports could exacerbate supply-side risks.
With global demand growth subdued, this could lead to downward pressure on prices.
Additionally, OPEC+ policy actions could continue to affect the market. A tighter production schedule from seven of its members could help support prices.
However, additional production increases could drive the market to the downside. The planned increase of 138,000 bpd in April raises concerns about the balance between supply and demand.
Meanwhile, the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports could support the market as they could impact the level of Iranian shipments. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East could fuel volatility in the market.
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