56% of people across Great Britain would now vote to retain our EU membership according to in depth research commissioned by Best for Britain and HOPE not hate.
The constituency level analysis also revealed that 422 of 632 GB constituencies now have majority support for remain, up from 229 in the 2016 referendum. This includes a majority of English constituencies for the first time, as well as all Scottish seats and all but one seat in Wales.
The results also found that two thirds of people (66%) want the public to have the final say on the Brexit deal.
Other key findings from the research included:
- 324 of 533 English constituencies now back staying in our current deal as members of the EU, as do all Scottish seats and all but one seat in Wales
- 81 more constituencies have swung from leave to backing our current deal as members of the EU since Best for Britain and HOPE not hate’s July research. This includes 50 Conservative held seats.
- This means 193 constituencies have changed their mind since June 2016 according to our research [112 switched in our July MRP study]
- All GB constituencies now back the public having a final say on Brexit [don’t knows excluded]
The change is being driven by young Labour voters (71% of 18-34 year olds who voted Labour in 2017 would vote remain, up from 51% in 2016), and female Labour voters (68% would now vote Remain up from 49%).
The analysis, using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) methodology, is based on polling by Populus of over 8000 people across Great Britain. The MRP analysis was undertaken by Focaldata, an award-winning AI start-up focused on market research. It follows a similar MRP study conducted by YouGov and Focaldata for Best for Britain and HOPE not hate in July allowing us to follow trends on just how quickly the country is changing its mind on Brexit.
Best for Britain champion David Lammy MP said, “This shows that huge swathes of the country have changed their minds on Brexit.
“Whether they voted leave or remain in 2016, every single constituency now supports giving the public a final say on May’s deal.
“If we do not give the public the opportunity to voice their changed opinion on the most important decision of our lifetime, we stop being a democracy.”