The dollar has been experiencing some volatility and was negative on Tuesday, extending its downtrend that began in mid-April.
This occurs as the market braces for critical US economic data due at the end of the week. The release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday is highly anticipated, as it could significantly impact the dollar.
Currently, traders are pricing in a potential rate reduction by November, a shift in sentiment from earlier expectations that pointed to September as the start of monetary easing.
This change is due in part to a strong US economic outlook and hawkish signals from policymakers, which have led traders to scale back their bets on aggressive rate cuts.
The release of the PCE data could affect the direction of the dollar.
Higher-than-expected figures could bolster the dollar as traders could price in a more restrictive stance from the Federal Reserve which could potentially delay rate cuts. However, a lower-than-expected PCE reading could accelerate the dollar’s decline, reinforcing expectations for sooner rate reductions.
Additionally, market participants are looking forward upcoming speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for any hints that could indicate the future direction of US monetary policy. Treasury yield could also come under pressure as traders monitor speeches and new data.
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