Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization, continued its advance on November 9 bringing the total rally for 2023 to 122%.
While the rally is impressive, Bitcoin remains 45% below its all-time high of $69,000 set in November of 2021. If the price can reach its prior high, that’s 88% upside from the current price.
When Bitcoin took off in November of 2020, emerging from a multi-month range like the one recently seen in March through October 2023, it ultimately advanced 360%. But there were several deep pullbacks along the way. How 2020 unfolded may provide some insights into the current rally.
From late October 2020, Bitcoin rallied 250% and then experienced a 30% drop. It then rallied 100% off that low before pulling back 20%. Off that swing low it rallied 40% and couldn’t move much beyond that the next several months.
This provides some perspective on the movement and volatility of Bitcoin. Large moves generally don’t happen without significant pullbacks in between.
Cory Mitchell, an analyst with Trading.biz, forecasts that Bitcoin could reach its prior high of $69,000 by mid-2024. “Bitcoin uptrends tend to move quickly once they get going, moving hundreds of percent often in less than a year. This is called the acceleration phase. 2013 rallied 1200% in approximately 100 days, 2017 rallied 1900% in just under a year, late 2020 rallied 400% in about 140 days .”
Mitchell also points out that it can take months, sometimes years to get to the acceleration phase of the uptrend where price moves are large and swift. For example, the 2017 rally actually started in mid-2015.
The price rallied 120% off the mid-year low and then stalled out till mid-2016. It rallied about 80% from there and then stalled out again. While nice gains had been seen early in the rally, the really big gains didn’t come till a year and a half after the bottom.
The late 2020 rally started early in the year and took months to start really accelerating to the upside.
The 2023 rally has been advancing choppily for 11 months. It may be nearing the acceleration phase or it could be several months away. If an acceleration phase does hit, a key target area is $100,000, which is well above the prior high.
Another thing going for Bitcoin is that it declined 77.6% from late 2021 to the low in 2022. This was the sixth 70% or greater decline since 2013. Such declines have been followed by strong rallies, except in 2014.
- 1746% rally off the 2013 Bottom
- 102% rally off the 2014 bottom (another 78% decline followed this)
- 12804% off the 2015 bottom
- 345% off the 2018 bottom
- 1692% off the 2020 bottom
- 136% rally, so far, off 2022 bottom
Rallies are measured to the peak price before another 70% or greater decline develops. When a large decline develops is unknown, but the numbers do show the scale of price moves between these large declines.
There are no certainties in trading, and Bitcoin can be especially volatile. Strong advances, even like the one seen so far in 2023 can be met with strong selling and large declines. Anyone investing or trading Bitcoin should be aware of these risks.
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