Bitcoin at a critical psychological threshold

The outlook for Bitcoin at the present stage reflects the complex interaction between global macroeconomic factors and institutional capital flows, particularly through spot Bitcoin ETFs.

After a period of strong growth in the second quarter of 2025, the market witnessed a reversal of capital flows in August.

Data from SoSoValue shows multiple sessions of large-scale outflows, with some days exceeding 800 million USD, causing the total net assets of Bitcoin ETFs to decline from a peak of around 160 billion USD to nearly 140 billion USD.

This weakening in institutional demand has played a significant role in the stagnation of Bitcoin’s price, which is currently trading around 108,000 USD.

From a macroeconomic perspective, market attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. labour market data cluster, including JOLTS, ADP, ISM Services, Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings.

The labour market functions as a crucial intermediary in the monetary policy transmission mechanism: it reflects both the health of economic growth and the degree of inflationary pressure. A scenario in which job growth remains moderate, unemployment rises slightly, and wages remain stable would reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will enter an easing cycle, thereby improving global liquidity conditions and supporting Bitcoin. Conversely, an excessive deterioration of the labour market could heighten recession fears, prompting a defensive stance across financial markets and weighing on risk assets.

In Europe, inflation continues to cool as both headline CPI and core CPI register slower growth, giving the European Central Bank room to maintain a cautious policy stance. This development generates positive spill over effects for global risk appetite, but its indirect impact remains modest compared to the decisive role of U.S. economic data and ETF flows.

At present, the 100,000 USD threshold stands out as a critical level to monitor. This figure is not merely a price point but also carries symbolic significance for institutional and retail investor confidence. In the short term, this level may act as a psychological threshold, where holding above 100,000 USD would be regarded as a signal reinforcing the long-term growth narrative, while a breakdown below it could erode confidence and trigger chain reactions in both ETF outflows and defensive investor behaviour.

Overall, Bitcoin’s outlook currently depends on two main pillars: monetary policy expectations from the Federal Reserve, as inferred through labor market signals, and institutional flows via spot ETFs. When both factors send positive signals simultaneously, Bitcoin can sustain and expand its role as a liquidity-sensitive asset. Conversely, weakness in either pillar—particularly when accompanied by the risk of breaking below the 100,000 USD psychological threshold—could pose significant challenges to the sustainability of its upward trend.

In the near term, Bitcoin is likely to continue fluctuating in a cautious state, as institutional investors await clearer signals from U.S. economic data and ETF flow dynamics. This situation reflects Bitcoin’s ongoing transition from being a purely speculative asset to becoming a barometer sensitive to global liquidity conditions. The 100,000 USD psychological threshold will serve as a “confidence anchor,” shaping market behavior in the coming period.